2022: What Can We Expect In The Energy Industry? （2）
Market Reform + Administrative Regulation
The "dual control" of the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions is of course more difficult than the "dual control" of energy consumption. The first thing to face is the monitoring and measurement of carbon emissions. For example, how much carbon emissions are generated by various industries, enterprises, and institutions? We almost do not have written and authoritative testing methods and evaluation standards in these links.
The establishment of an effective system requires not only the administrative system, but also the supporting technical means. In terms of implementation, the "new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption is not included in the total energy consumption control" proposed in the Central Economic Work Conference is an effective transition method. What is more worth looking forward to is the improvement of carbon trading.
In the short term, it is imminent to include all relevant industries in the national carbon market. Although the "dual control" of total carbon emissions and intensity still lacks sufficient details, it can be achieved under current technical conditions by allocating carbon emission allowances by industry and then to enterprises based on the total amount.
From the experience of European countries, a perfect carbon market requires the effective combination of "government administrative means + market regulation". In Europe, with changes in the way carbon allowances are issued (from free to paid, with the allowances gradually shrinking), carbon prices are also rising. In such a market environment, European companies have invested heavily in the research and development of carbon reduction technologies. In Europe, hydrogen energy is regarded as an important technical support for carbon reduction in the non-power industry. European hydrogen energy-related enterprises, policy support, and technical level are also relatively advanced in the world.
For China, 2022 needs to start with the breakdown of the carbon market. The construction of the carbon market will drive the reform of the electricity market, promote the scale of green electricity trading, promote the progress of carbon reduction and carbon sequestration technology, and form a new method for assessing the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions.
At the beginning of 2022, my country's economic development is also facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations. Coupled with the uncertainty of the global epidemic and the more complex external environment, China's economic development is facing great challenges. As the foundation of the national economy, the energy industry has a heavy responsibility. We must not only continue to promote market-oriented reforms to increase market vitality, but also need administrative regulation and control to solve the problem of market failure, so as to help China's energy industry go through the "corner" smoothly.
