2022: What Can We Expect In The Energy Industry? （1）

Going to a new starting point, the energy system in 2022 will continue to achieve marginal improvements.

We expect that the contradiction between energy supply and demand will ease, and the reform of energy marketization will make a breakthrough. The synergy between traditional energy and fossil energy, the new power system is increasingly diversified, diversified and intelligent, and the pace of dual carbon is more prudent and firmer.

Laying the foundation for zero-carbon electricity

In 2021, the energy industry has reached a consensus on the implementation path of dual carbon.

Fossil energy cannot be eliminated all at once. After decades of development, traditional fossil energy is an important support for the energy system. If we do not consider low carbon and environmental protection, we can achieve the two elements of cheapness and stability.

Low-carbon environmental protection has broken the traditional stable system of fossil energy. China proposes to build a new power system with new energy as the main body, and faces challenges in many aspects such as technology, economy, management and operation mode.

At present, the biggest challenge of the new power system is the safe and stable operation of the power grid. Under the keynote of stable economic growth, as the basis for social and economic operation, the power grid cannot have one or more national power shortage accidents similar to 2021.

Under the circumstance that various power sources such as electrochemical energy storage, pumped storage, power grid dispatch, and nuclear power will not have major technological innovations and installed capacity changes, with the increasing number of new energy installed capacity, the required supporting coal power installed capacity may be have some growth. Until the carbon peak in 2030, there will be no greater pressure on the "two-carbon" target for the time being. But after 2030, if the power system remains highly dependent on coal power, we may usher in another peak in carbon emissions.

Of course, if all coal-fired power is transformed from base-load power to peak-shaving power, the increase in coal-fired power installed capacity will not lead to an increase in carbon emissions. But this condition is far too ideal for now.

For one, this requires all coal-fired power plants to be retrofitted for flexibility. Second, the reform of electricity marketization must be perfected, so that coal-fired power units can benefit from the ancillary service market and capacity market and achieve a return on investment. Third, even if the above two conditions are met, the output of coal-fired power units may increase. In the recent European power market, the carbon price has soared to 100 euros/ton, and a large number of coal-fired power plants are still being started up to participate in the electricity market. Because electricity prices are so high, coal power is still profitable.

Completely eliminating the irreplaceable role of coal power means that the traditional "generating-transmission-distribution-using" one-way flow power system needs to be completely subverted. "Distributed" energy is a new way to solve traditional problems.

However, distributed energy has not been able to develop on a large scale. Technically, the distributed energy system puts forward higher requirements for the distribution network. Our country has built the strongest large power grid in the world, but the investment and construction of the distribution network is relatively lagging behind.

This situation is about to change. After overcoming technical difficulties, the development of distributed energy needs to overcome the obstacles of economic security. For distributed energy systems, the biggest appeal is to be able to sell excess electricity and purchase it when electricity is in short supply on the basis of self-generation and self-use of electricity, so as to ensure the safety of the entire small-scale system and reduce electricity costs.